SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 15 23:01:01 UTC 2019
on October 15, 2019 at 11:00 pm
No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 15 23:01:01 UTC 2019.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Oct 15 23:01:01 UTC 2019
on October 15, 2019 at 11:00 pm
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 15 23:01:01 UTC 2019.
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
on October 15, 2019 at 10:35 pm
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC The elevated area was expanded into portions of northern Colorado where west-southwest winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 15-20% are likely to occur tomorrow afternoon. Elevated conditions may develop tomorrow afternoon across central Nevada where sustained southerly winds of 12-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% are likely. However, ERCs are not much above average leaving fine fuels as the primary carrier for any potential wildfire. ..Nauslar.. 10/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest on D2/Wednesday. Farther east, upper-level ridging will shift over the Continental Divide. At the surface, a surface high pressure system will remain over the southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Surface pressure will fall in response to the upper-level trough across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. ...Southeastern Oregon Vicinity... Increasing mid-level flow and a deepening surface trough across the OR/ID border will contribute to surface winds of 15-25 mph in southeastern OR into adjacent northwest NV. High-level clouds will be on the increase during the day with the plume of Pacific moisture accompanying the trough. Despite unreceptive 100/1000-hour fuels, fine fuels that are present will likely be dry enough to support fire spread as afternoon RH falls to 10-20%. Critical conditions are probable in some locations, but lack of fuels/unfavorable heavy fuels will limit large fire potential. ...Southeastern Wyoming... Fuels have continued to dry after recent snowmelt. Though some upper-level ridging is expected over this region, mid-level flow will be sufficiently strong on the periphery of the ridge that wind speeds will likely reach 15-25 mph with modest boundary-layer mixing. During the afternoon, minimum RH will fall between 10-20%. The duration of the strongest surface winds are in question given boundary-layer mixing does not appear all that efficient on forecast soundings. Furthermore, cool temperatures to start and end the day may also limit the duration of critically low RH in some locations. Thus, any critical conditions will likely be brief and spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Oct 15, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
on October 15, 2019 at 8:09 pm
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of Texas into the Ozarks, and along portions of the Gulf Coast. ...20Z Update... Generally minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of TX and southeastern OK to account for observational trends and short-term model guidance. A small area of stronger diurnal heating is supporting a narrow corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across parts of southeastern OK into northeast TX. At least isolated storms are still expected to form across this region within the next few hours along a southeastward-moving cold front. Strong mid-level westerly flow and around 45-55 kt of effective bulk shear will likely promote organized updrafts, with all severe hazards possible. However, widespread low clouds have limited heating and instability farther east into southern AR and east TX. Current expectations are for the overall severe threat to remain rather isolated through the early evening across this region, before instability weakens even further with the loss of daytime heating. Farther east, low-topped storms across southern AL and the FL Panhandle to the south of a warm front may continue to pose mainly an isolated strong/gusty wind threat. See Mesoscale Discussion 2068 for more information on the near-term severe threat across this region. ..Gleason.. 10/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ ...Southeast OK into the Gulf Coast region... Morning surface analysis shows a diffuse surface boundary extending from southern AL/MS into parts of LA/AR and eastern OK. Persistent clouds and precipitation along and north of the boundary will limit it's northward progress today. But ample low-level moisture south of the front and the potential for a little heating will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout this axis. The area with greatest confidence of more intense storms extends from southeast OK into southwest AR/northeast TX and northern LA - where the strongest heating and vertical shear profiles will exist. Rotating storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are possible. But even here, weak low-level winds will limit the overall severe threat. ...AR/MO... A few thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening along a cold front sagging into parts of western AR and southeast MO. Instability will be quite weak, limiting the organized severe risk. However, sufficient wind speeds aloft and large-scale forcing will pose a risk of a few storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...TX... A band of strong westerly midlevel winds extends across TX today, where a weak CAP and moderate CAPE will develop. 12z CAM solutions generally agree that scattered thunderstorms will develop along an axis from the Big Bend region into central and east TX this afternoon and evening. The initial storms may be occasionally intense with a risk of hail and gusty winds. Any severe threat should weaken by mid-evening as diurnal cooling commences. Read more