• SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Apr 23 20:31:02 UTC 2019
    on April 23, 2019 at 8:30 pm

    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 23 20:31:02 UTC 2019. […]

  • SPC Apr 23, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
    on April 23, 2019 at 7:48 pm

    SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe gusts are expected across parts of southwest and central Texas this afternoon into early tonight. ...Southwest and Central TX... Only minor adjustments were made to the Slight risk area based on latest trends, but overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook. See MCD 424 for additional details concerning large hail and damaging wind threat. ...Southern OH into Southwest PA... Convection should continue to develop southwestward along the cold front. Storms across western PA have remained rather weak where instability has been limited by thicker cloud cover. However, stronger heating has occurred ahead of the front from southern OH into southwest PA and where temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to low 80s, resulting in steep low level lapse rates and a continued threat for isolated/locally damaging wind gusts through early evening. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019/ ...Southwest and central TX through tonight... A midlevel low will continue to drift east-southeastward over northwest Mexico, maintaining southwesterly flow aloft over southwest and central TX. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward while being reinforced by occasional convective clusters along the boundary. South of the front, breaks in the low clouds by this afternoon will allow surface temperatures to warm to 78-82 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. This, combined with midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km, will support MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist today along the slow-moving cold front, with additional (more isolated) storm development possible south of the front later this afternoon, potentially focused on the higher terrain west of Fort Stockton-Del Rio. The moderate buoyancy/steep lapse rates plus strong deep-layer vertical shear and long hodographs will favor splitting supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail and damaging winds this afternoon/evening. Overnight, storms will again persist as clusters on the immediate cool side of the boundary, fed by an increase in low-level southerly flow atop the frontal surface. ...Eastern OK to southwest MO this afternoon... An MCV from overnight convection is moving northeastward over northeast OK/southeast KS. The trailing lobe of this MCV extends southeastward to the surface front, where surface heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) this afternoon. A few storms could form and move northeastward along the boundary this afternoon, with enough enhancement of deep-layer vertical shear for organized multicell clusters and/or marginal supercells. Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be the main threats. ...Southern OH to western PA this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will progress eastward across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will drive weak surface-based buoyancy in a narrow band ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the zone of ascent along and immediately preceding the boundary. A corridor of 40-50 kt westerly midlevel flow will favor marginal supercells and/or short line segments capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. Read mor […]

  • SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95 Status Reports
    on April 23, 2019 at 7:30 pm

    WW 0095 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE LFK TO 45 ESE LFK TO 25 NNE BPT TO 15 W BPT. WW 37 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050500Z. ..MOSIER..04/05/19 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC199-241-457-050500- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read mor […]

  • SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
    on April 23, 2019 at 7:30 pm

    WW 95 SEVERE TSTM TX 231930Z - 240400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest into western north Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected along a slow-moving front the next few hours from southwest Texas into western north Texas, and over the high terrain west of Del Rio. The storm environment along and south of the watch will favor splitting supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail and damaging gusts. Storm clusters should persist into the early overnight hours along the front, with a gradual transition to locally heavy rainfall as the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Dryden TX to 25 miles east of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020. ...Thompson Read mor […]

  • SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    on April 23, 2019 at 6:51 pm

    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 04/23/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low over northern Mexico will slowly shift eastward into portions of West Texas, while farther north, zonal flow will remain in place across the northern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control across much of the West and the central/northern Plains. Once again, breezy west-northwesterly winds will develop during the afternoon across portions of Montana into the Dakota beneath enhanced mid-level flow. RH values should again remain above critical thresholds amidst marginally receptive fuels, thus no fire-weather highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read mor […]

  • SPC Apr 23, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
    on April 23, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of southern and southeast Texas into far southwest Louisiana on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...TX and LA Vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning from western into north-central TX on the cool side of surface cold front. This activity is not likely to be severe during the morning hours. By afternoon, additional thunderstorm development is expected in the warm sector across parts of the central TX when stronger ascent associated with the eastward advancing upper low overspreads the region. Southeasterly low level flow will maintain Gulf moisture ahead of the surface boundary, and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F are already in place. While cloud cover may inhibit development through the morning hours, by afternoon, temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates should result in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the Rio Grande Valley toward the Upper Texas Coast. Semi-discrete supercells may develop initially, posing a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado threat is also possible, given backed low level flow and maximized SRH in the vicinity of the frontal boundary and weak surface low. Convection is expected to grow upscale during the late afternoon/evening across central TX and track eastward toward southern portions of the Sabine River Valley/southeast LA overnight. Latest model guidance suggests a 35-45kt southerly low level jet will develop ahead of the bowing segment, with deep layer shear, adequate instability and abundant boundary layer moisture more than capable of maintaining eastward progression of the line. Thus, an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly a QLCS tornado will extend into southeast TX and far southwest LA overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Leitman.. 04/23/2019 Read mor […]

  • SPC Apr 23, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
    on April 23, 2019 at 4:35 pm

    SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe gusts are expected across parts of southwest and central Texas this afternoon into early tonight. ...Southwest and central TX through tonight... A midlevel low will continue to drift east-southeastward over northwest Mexico, maintaining southwesterly flow aloft over southwest and central TX. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward while being reinforced by occasional convective clusters along the boundary. South of the front, breaks in the low clouds by this afternoon will allow surface temperatures to warm to 78-82 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. This, combined with midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km, will support MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist today along the slow-moving cold front, with additional (more isolated) storm development possible south of the front later this afternoon, potentially focused on the higher terrain west of Fort Stockton-Del Rio. The moderate buoyancy/steep lapse rates plus strong deep-layer vertical shear and long hodographs will favor splitting supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail and damaging winds this afternoon/evening. Overnight, storms will again persist as clusters on the immediate cool side of the boundary, fed by an increase in low-level southerly flow atop the frontal surface. ...Eastern OK to southwest MO this afternoon... An MCV from overnight convection is moving northeastward over northeast OK/southeast KS. The trailing lobe of this MCV extends southeastward to the surface front, where surface heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) this afternoon. A few storms could form and move northeastward along the boundary this afternoon, with enough enhancement of deep-layer vertical shear for organized multicell clusters and/or marginal supercells. Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be the main threats. ...Southern OH to western PA this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will progress eastward across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will drive weak surface-based buoyancy in a narrow band ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the zone of ascent along and immediately preceding the boundary. A corridor of 40-50 kt westerly midlevel flow will favor marginal supercells and/or short line segments capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/23/2019 Read mor […]