• SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Feb 17 10:29:01 UTC 2020
    on February 17, 2020 at 10:28 am

    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 17 10:29:01 UTC 2020.

  • SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 17 10:29:01 UTC 2020
    on February 17, 2020 at 10:28 am

    No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 17 10:29:01 UTC 2020.

  • SPC Feb 17, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
    on February 17, 2020 at 8:37 am

    Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure will dominate across much of the CONUS through Day 6/Sat. As the surface high develops southeast across the Plains/Midwest to the Southeast, a cold front will continue to shift southward, deep into the Bay of Campeche and the Caribbean through the weekend. A low-amplitude upper ridge will build over the central/southern Plains late this week, before an upper trough is forecast to eject across the southwestern U.S. and into the Plains on Day 7/Sun and the southern U.S. early next week. This could result in increasing thunderstorm activity at the end of the period from the southern Plains through the Southeast. However, severe potential appears low at this time, with modest moisture return currently forecast ahead of the upper trough by medium range guidance. Read more

  • SPC Feb 17, 2020 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
    on February 17, 2020 at 7:51 am

    SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, mainly along the southeastern U.S. coast from Florida to South Carolina. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough in northern stream flow will persist near the northern U.S./Canadian border on Wednesday. Further south, quasi-zonal southern stream flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the country. At the surface, strong arctic high pressure will begin developing southward across the Plains and Midwest as a cold front initially extending from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX continues to slowly sag south/southeast offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly along the southeastern U.S. coast, but meager instability and lack of stronger forcing will preclude severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2020 Read more

  • SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    on February 17, 2020 at 6:35 am

    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad, low-amplitude upper trough is forecast to cover much of the northern/central states on Tuesday. At the surface, an expansive ridge will spread over much of the CONUS in the wake of a cold front. ...Southern California... High pressure over the Great Basin will maintain the offshore flow regime across southern California on Tuesday. While minimum RH values will likely drop below 15% across higher terrain areas, generally unfavorable live fuel receptiveness and a tendency toward a weaker pressure gradient in recent guidance suggest that the fire weather threat should remain limited through the period. ..Dean.. 02/17/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

  • SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    on February 17, 2020 at 6:34 am

    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will cover much of the western and central CONUS today, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build into the Great Basin, while a cold front will sweep through much of the central/southern Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions may result in locally elevated wind/RH conditions across portions of east-central NM and west TX within a westerly flow regime immediately ahead of the cold front, and also within the post-frontal regime further north into eastern CO, southwest KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles. The fire weather threat should generally be mitigated by marginal temps/RH to the north, lighter winds to the south, and marginal fuel conditions across the region. ...Northern California... Relatively dry and breezy conditions will develop this afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and eastern slopes of the adjacent coastal ranges. Generally unfavorable fuels should limit the fire weather threat, though locally elevated conditions will be possible where dry finer fuels or dead fuels are available. ...Southern California... Some increase in offshore flow is expected later today and tonight across portions of southern CA, as high pressure settles into the Great Basin. Locally elevated wind/RH conditions will be possible across the higher terrain of Los Angeles/Ventura counties by late tonight, but generally unfavorable live fuel receptiveness and the lack of a more substantial pressure gradient should limit the overall fire weather threat. ..Dean.. 02/17/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

  • SPC Feb 17, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
    on February 17, 2020 at 6:28 am

    SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas through much of the southern U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern U.S. on Tuesday as a series of shortwave impulses migrate through a larger-scale upper trough. At the surface, a cold front will extend south/southwest from a low initially over the Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley and central TX. Southerly low level flow ahead of the cold front will result in 60s F surface dewpoints across much of the Gulf Coast vicinity into the Southeast. Widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/isolated thunderstorms will limit surface heating, resulting in meager destabilization within a modestly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary also will lead to training precipitation. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the front from central TX through much of the southern/southeastern U.S., but severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2020 Read more